Why I'm Looking Forward To The Freak Show

It's been covered heavily but is worth a brief recap: Last month, John McCain, sitting with reporters on the "Straight Talk Express" and already wrangling with the oh-so-difficult issue of whether U.S. taxpayer money should fund contraception efforts to combat AIDS in Africa, was broadsided with a nasty trick question that would leave even the most intelligent, quick-on-his-feet politician reeling.

Well, not really:

Q: "So no contraception, no counseling on contraception. Just abstinence. Do you think contraceptives help stop the spread of HIV?"

Yes, it's 2007, and yes, a presidential candidate was asked that. McCain's awkward, waffling response became one of the early highlights of the '08 race:

Mr. McCain: (Long pause) "You've stumped me."
Q: "I mean, I think you'd probably agree it probably does help stop it?"
Mr. McCain: (Laughs) "Are we on the Straight Talk express? I'm not informed enough on it. Let me find out. You know, I'm sure I've taken a position on it on the past. I have to find out what my position was. Brian, would you find out what my position is on contraception – I'm sure I'm opposed to government spending on it, I'm sure I support the president's policies on it."
Q: "But you would agree that condoms do stop the spread of sexually transmitted diseases. Would you say: 'No, we're not going to distribute them,' knowing that?"
Mr. McCain: (Twelve-second pause) "Get me Coburn's thing, ask Weaver to get me Coburn's paper that he just gave me in the last couple of days. I've never gotten into these issues before."

John McCain has been a senator for 20 years and has never come across the issue of AIDS prevention. Interesting. This bizarre exchange, in which McCain had to tread very carefully so as not to fully acknowledge reality, is precisely why I am so excited for the GOP primaries.

Likely GOP primary voters are a hardened bunch by now. They've witnessed a term and a half of one of the most incompetent, poorly run administrations in history and have decided they want more. Republicans love to trot out the term "mainstream America" and juxtapose it with Democrats. So you can understand how thrilled I am that the Republican presidential candidates must now rely on a voting bloc that is, well, out of touch with mainstream America. As the Times puts it in an article explaining why McCain has little choice but to continue vehemently defending the war:

Republican primary voters, unlike the rest of the nation, appear to remain supportive of the president and the war, and the generals on the ground are asking for public patience in pursuing the new policy of pouring more troops into Iraq. Backing away from the White House and the war now could prove problematic for any candidate seeking the Republican nomination even if it could prove helpful in the general election.

So anyone who wants to come out of the weak GOP field has to appeal to voters whose views are markedly different from those of the general population. McCain is the most interesting candidate to watch because he has the most to prove to the core faithful. He has had the "moderate" label clinging to him for years, which has helped his career, but now it's an albatross and he doesn't have much time to shed it. (Romney and Giuliani have some similar problems regarding their stances on social issues, of course, but neither has been a longtime enemy of the right wing of the Republican party, as McCain has.)

The entertainment will come from watching McCain and co. walk the tightrope. On the one hand, they need to reach out to people who for the most part don't believe in the effectiveness of condoms, the truth of evolution, or that Iraq was an ill-conceived or poorly executed war; on the other hand, they can't say anything so abjectly stupid that the country as a whole takes note.

As for the candidate who's able to successfully traverse the primaries and get the nod, he could be in trouble. It's going to be very hard to attract enough of the GOP base to win the primary without a message that will cause most of the country to blanch. That's why Giuliani is in the best shape. The fact that he's held up as a "homeland security candidate" is baffling given that his incompetence made 9/11 worse, but this gives him almost infinite leeway on issues that could trip up McCain or Romney.

Likely GOP primary voters are steadfast in their convictions. Giuliani, they (and the remarkably lazy mainstream media) have decided, is a hero, the father figure best able to protect us from Evil in a post-Bush world. Unless Romney can convince evangelicals that he is one of them despite his Mormonism, the religious right will be looking at a race devoid of an outwardly devout, Bush-like candidate with a chance at succeeding. So, given the hard-right obsession with terrorism, with apocalyptic battles and American pride, why not Rudy?

Giuliani would have far and away the best shot of any Republican in the general election, so hopefully I'm wrong. But regardless of who gets the nod, I look forward to the freak show.